The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

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Sinopsis

Condición del ejemplar: Good. A black swan is an event that is highly improbable, has an enormous impact and, after the fact, is explained away as though it had been predictable all along. The rise of the internet, the First World War, the September 11 attacks and the bestselling success of an unknown book are all examples. In this landmark work, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a former options trader and a scholar of risk and uncertainty, argues that black swans shape almost everything in our world, from history and science to finance and our own lives. Yet we are blind to them. We focus on what we already know, mistake luck for skill, trust experts and forecasting models that cannot cope with the truly unexpected, and tell ourselves neat stories about the past that make the future seem more predictable than it is. With wit, erudition and a talent for storytelling, Taleb explores why we fall into these traps, the difference between the mild randomness of Mediocristan and the wild randomness of Extremistan, and how we can prepare for, and even benefit from, the events we cannot foresee. Provocative and endlessly thought-provoking, The Black Swan has changed the way millions of people think about uncertainty.

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The Black Swan